The longest set of odds in our database belongs to the Base Chrome RetroFractor Autograph SuperFractor in 2026 Bowman Football, which the manufacturer states at 1 in 48,619,575 packs. We hold 80,592 odds lines with a stated numeric ratio, parsed from the sheets manufacturers publish alongside their sets.
What are the longest stated odds?
These are the eight longest we have on file. Every figure is the manufacturer's own stated ratio for that card in that configuration, not an estimate.
| Stated odds | Card | Set |
|---|---|---|
| 1 in 48,619,575 | Base Chrome RetroFractor Autograph SuperFractor | 2026 Bowman Football |
| 1 in 11,586,000 | COMICFRACTOR SUPERFRACTOR | 2026 Topps Chrome Star Wars |
| 1 in 11,586,000 | REFLECTIONS SUPERFRACTOR | 2026 Topps Chrome Star Wars |
| 1 in 9,723,915 | Base Chrome RetroFractor Autograph Red Refractor | 2026 Bowman Football |
| 1 in 9,090,910 | NFL Rookie Material Autograph Cards Orange | 2026 Topps Flagship Football |
| 1 in 9,090,910 | NFL Material Autograph Cards Gold | 2026 Topps Flagship Football |
| 1 in 8,333,334 | Field Fit Swatch Collection Autograph Relic Gold | 2026 Topps Flagship Football |
| 1 in 8,333,334 | 1991 Topps Football Rookie Autograph Cards Orange | 2026 Topps Flagship Football |
What does 1 in 48,619,575 actually mean?
It means the manufacturer expects one of those cards for every 48,619,575 packs of that configuration produced. It is a statement about the print run divided by the pack count, not a promise about any individual box, and it says nothing about what has already been opened.
Odds at this length are a way of saying the card exists and is not meant to be found. A ratio past a few million is closer to a statement of intent than a probability a person can plan around.
Why do the same sets appear more than once?
Because the longest odds attach to the top finish of a parallel run, and a set with several parallel families has several of them. A set that issues a superfractor of each insert line produces one extreme ratio per line, all from the same print decision.
Where do these numbers come from?
From the odds sheets manufacturers publish for their own products, parsed as stated. Where a sheet gives a dash or a range rather than a ratio we record no number, so the 80,592 lines above are the ones with a figure attached and not the whole set of what is published.
